Stumbling on Wins
“Stumbling on Wins” by David J. Berri and Martin B. Schmidt is a thought-provoking book that applies the principles of behavioral economics to the world of sports. The authors argue that, contrary to popular belief, many decisions made by sports teams, coaches, and analysts are influenced by cognitive biases and faulty assumptions rather than solid evidence or rational thinking. Berri and Schmidt use statistical analysis to demonstrate how these biases often lead to poor decision-making, both in player evaluations and overall team management. The book challenges conventional wisdom in sports, aiming to show readers how they can better understand the dynamics of winning and losing.
One of the key themes of the book is how commonly held myths about player performance can lead to inefficient decisions in both drafting and contract negotiations. For instance, the authors explore how the NFL and NBA overvalue certain traits, like athleticism or size, while underestimating more predictive metrics like efficiency or consistency. They argue that many teams are drawn to flashy players who make highlight-reel plays but may not contribute as much to overall team success as less glamorous, but more consistent, players. This "stumbling" in decision-making often leads to wasted resources on underperforming athletes.
Another focus of “Stumbling on Wins” is the role of coaches and their decision-making processes. Berri and Schmidt suggest that many coaches, despite their experience, fall prey to the same biases as fans and media analysts. For example, they might stick with strategies that have worked in the past, even when the data shows a better approach is available. The book delves into how teams can benefit from more evidence-based strategies, such as using advanced metrics to make decisions about playing time, game tactics, and roster construction. By relying on data instead of gut instincts, teams could improve their chances of success.
In the broader scope, “Stumbling on Wins” reveals that success in sports, much like in other fields, is often more random and unpredictable than most people believe. Berri and Schmidt highlight how much of what happens in sports—whether a team wins or loses, a player performs well or poorly—can be attributed to chance. This randomness means that teams often fail to learn from past mistakes or successes. By recognizing and correcting for these biases and misconceptions, sports teams, executives, and even fans can gain a clearer understanding of what actually drives success. The book offers a fresh perspective on sports analytics, pushing readers to reconsider how they evaluate performance and success in the world of professional sports.